Post by Emerald City on Oct 30, 2004 15:48:53 GMT -5
By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer
WASHINGTON - President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are virtually tied in the Electoral College count, fighting over eight to 10 states so close and unpredictable that anything is possible Tuesday night.
After months campaigning and a half-billion dollars spent on attack ads, Bush and Kerry are still at the whim of unexpected events such as Osama bin Laden sudden emergence on Friday, a videotape appearance that sent both candidates scrambling to pledge victory in the fight against terrorism
"Under normal circumstances, undecided voters break against the incumbent this late in an election. However, these are not normal circumstances. This is a time of war," said Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell.
"The question then becomes, will this be different than most years? Will swing voters decide they don't want to change horses in midstream?" he said.
The answer comes in two days — or more, if there is a repeat of the 2000 recount — for a Republican incumbent and his Democratic challenger who are marshaling two vastly different and unproven get-out-the-vote operations in the battleground states, principally Florida and in the Midwest.
Polls suggest the nation is evenly divided or leaning toward Bush, but the popular vote does not determine who wins the presidency. The White House goes to whoever earns 270 state electoral votes, a majority of the 538 available.
According to an Associated Press analysis, 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes. Kerry has 16 states plus the District of Columbia secured or leaning his direction for 211 electoral votes.
It is down to this: Bush needs to scrape together at least 48 of the remaining 105 electoral votes to keep his job. Kerry needs 59 to move into the White House.
The remaining 105 electoral votes are in the eight most competitive states: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico.
Two other states fall just outside the toss-up category — Michigan and New Hampshire, both of which tilt slightly toward Kerry. An additional six to 12 states, including the slow-voting Democratic bastion of Hawaii, could come into play if neither Bush nor Kerry wins a clear majority of the popular vote.
It would take a modest burst of momentum, a swing of 3 or 4 percentage points, to produce a lopsided Electoral College victory for either Bush or Kerry.
The president narrowly took three of the toss-up states in 2000, when he lost the popular count to Democrat Al Gore but won the Electoral College with 271 votes. He claimed Ohio and Nevada on Election Day, and sweated out a 36-day recount before a Supreme Court ruling awarded him Florida and the White House.
Gore won Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico, the latter three by fewer than 10,000 votes.
Among the toss-ups, the most important states are Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, with 68 electoral votes combined. Victory in any two of the three by either man would propel him toward victory.
With a bigger electoral base, Bush could lose two of the three and still make up for it with gains in the Upper Midwest. He's also hedging his bets with an 11th-hour push in Kerry-leaning states such as Michigan and Hawaii.
Each of the toss-up states presents different challenges for the two candidates.
WASHINGTON - President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are virtually tied in the Electoral College count, fighting over eight to 10 states so close and unpredictable that anything is possible Tuesday night.
After months campaigning and a half-billion dollars spent on attack ads, Bush and Kerry are still at the whim of unexpected events such as Osama bin Laden sudden emergence on Friday, a videotape appearance that sent both candidates scrambling to pledge victory in the fight against terrorism
"Under normal circumstances, undecided voters break against the incumbent this late in an election. However, these are not normal circumstances. This is a time of war," said Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell.
"The question then becomes, will this be different than most years? Will swing voters decide they don't want to change horses in midstream?" he said.
The answer comes in two days — or more, if there is a repeat of the 2000 recount — for a Republican incumbent and his Democratic challenger who are marshaling two vastly different and unproven get-out-the-vote operations in the battleground states, principally Florida and in the Midwest.
Polls suggest the nation is evenly divided or leaning toward Bush, but the popular vote does not determine who wins the presidency. The White House goes to whoever earns 270 state electoral votes, a majority of the 538 available.
According to an Associated Press analysis, 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes. Kerry has 16 states plus the District of Columbia secured or leaning his direction for 211 electoral votes.
It is down to this: Bush needs to scrape together at least 48 of the remaining 105 electoral votes to keep his job. Kerry needs 59 to move into the White House.
The remaining 105 electoral votes are in the eight most competitive states: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico.
Two other states fall just outside the toss-up category — Michigan and New Hampshire, both of which tilt slightly toward Kerry. An additional six to 12 states, including the slow-voting Democratic bastion of Hawaii, could come into play if neither Bush nor Kerry wins a clear majority of the popular vote.
It would take a modest burst of momentum, a swing of 3 or 4 percentage points, to produce a lopsided Electoral College victory for either Bush or Kerry.
The president narrowly took three of the toss-up states in 2000, when he lost the popular count to Democrat Al Gore but won the Electoral College with 271 votes. He claimed Ohio and Nevada on Election Day, and sweated out a 36-day recount before a Supreme Court ruling awarded him Florida and the White House.
Gore won Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico, the latter three by fewer than 10,000 votes.
Among the toss-ups, the most important states are Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, with 68 electoral votes combined. Victory in any two of the three by either man would propel him toward victory.
With a bigger electoral base, Bush could lose two of the three and still make up for it with gains in the Upper Midwest. He's also hedging his bets with an 11th-hour push in Kerry-leaning states such as Michigan and Hawaii.
Each of the toss-up states presents different challenges for the two candidates.